Markets · Economy · Investor Psychology

Markets in Review

A weekly look at the stories that moved markets, why they mattered, and what investors are watching next.

Week Ending July 2, 2026

5 Market Stories

Looking Ahead: July 6

Editor's Note

It was a short week with a long list of implications. The June jobs report came in at roughly half of what economists expected, breaking a months-long streak of resilient labor data and changing the conversation around the Federal Reserve overnight. The Dow marched to another record and its fourth straight weekly gain, while the chip stocks that led the market all year kept sliding. And oil quietly fell back to pre-war levels on hopes for a lasting U.S.–Iran agreement. The market that headed into the July 4 holiday looked very different depending on whether investors were positioned in the old leaders or the new ones.

July 2, 2026

The Jobs Report Broke the Streak

The biggest economic story of the week landed Thursday morning, a day early because of the holiday. The U.S. economy added just 57,000 jobs in June — economists expected roughly twice that — and the prior two months were revised lower by a combined 74,000 jobs. After several months of surprisingly resilient labor data, this was the first report that clearly said the job market is cooling.

The unemployment rate actually ticked down to 4.2%, but largely because fewer people were participating in the labor force, not because hiring strengthened. Hiring held up in healthcare and professional services, while leisure and hospitality shed jobs.

For markets, the weak number carried a silver lining. A cooler labor market takes pressure off inflation and makes it far less likely the Fed tightens further. Treasury yields fell immediately after the release, and the Dow rallied more than 1% to a record close heading into the holiday weekend.

"On Main Street, a weak jobs report is bad news. On Wall Street, it can be a relief. That gap is exactly what investors need to understand right now."Scott's Take

June 29 – July 2, 2026

A Tale of Two Markets: Dow Records, Nasdaq Slides

The same market told two completely different stories last week. The Dow notched a record closing high and its fourth consecutive weekly gain — its longest winning streak since October 2024 — while the Nasdaq lagged as semiconductor and AI-linked names kept selling off.

Money continued rotating out of the crowded technology trade and into financials, industrials, insurance, healthcare, and other areas that spent most of the year in Big Tech's shadow.

Tesla captured the dynamic perfectly: the company beat second-quarter delivery estimates and the stock still fell 7%, a reminder that when expectations are stretched, even good news isn't good enough.

"When the Dow sets records while the Nasdaq falls, that's not a broken market. That's a market changing its mind about what to pay up for."Scott's Take

June 29 – July 2, 2026

The Chip Selloff Went Global

The pressure on semiconductors was not just an American story. South Korea's Kospi index plunged nearly 8% in a single session as chipmakers sold off, and the weakness rippled straight into U.S. names like AMD, Micron, and Intel.

The selloff isn't about whether AI matters — it's about price. After chip stocks led the market for most of the year, investors are asking harder questions about valuations, memory prices, and whether the enormous cost of building the AI economy will squeeze the margins of the companies supplying it.

That question did not get answered last week, and it will hang over the market as second-quarter earnings season approaches.

"Nobody is arguing AI is going away. The argument is about what you should pay for it — and after the run these stocks have had, that's a healthy argument to have."Scott's Take

July 2, 2026

Warsh's Message: Watch the Data, Not the Fed

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh spent the week reinforcing the new reality for investors: don't look to the central bank for a roadmap. Warsh urged Wall Street to map the path of interest rates from the economic data itself rather than from Fed forward guidance — and then Thursday's soft jobs report showed exactly why that matters.

Warsh also noted that inflation risks have eased substantially, which combined with the cooling labor market strengthens the case for the Fed to simply stay on hold.

The era of the market front-running promised rate cuts is over. The era of trading each data point on its merits has begun.

"The Fed took away the cheat sheet. Now every jobs report and every inflation print is a live event, and investors have to do the homework themselves."Scott's Take

June 29 – July 2, 2026

Oil Fell Back to Pre-War Levels

Crude quietly delivered one of the most consumer-friendly stories of the week. Brent fell below $71 — its lowest level since the war began in late February, and down sharply from its April peak above $126 — as Qatar-mediated talks between Washington and Tehran showed what negotiators called positive progress toward a permanent agreement.

Cheaper oil works like a tax cut for households and businesses: lower fuel costs, softer inflation pressure, and better consumer psychology heading into the peak summer driving season.

The caveat, as always, is that the relief depends entirely on a fragile peace holding — and any disruption around the Strait of Hormuz can reverse it quickly.

"Every dollar off a barrel of oil eventually shows up in somebody's budget. The question is whether the peace that's driving prices down actually holds."Scott's Take

Looking Ahead: Week of July 6, 2026

After the jobs miss and another leg down in the chip trade, investors enter the new week asking whether the year's biggest winners find a floor — and whether the fragile calm in the Middle East holds.

The Chip Correction

After two weeks of selling, investors will be watching whether semiconductors stabilize — or whether earnings expectations for the AI trade get reset lower first.

SpaceX Joins the Nasdaq-100

SpaceX enters the index on July 7 under Nasdaq's new fast-track rules for mega-IPOs, meaning index funds — and the retirement accounts inside them — become owners of the market's most debated new stock.

The Iran Agreement's Durability

Oil's slide to pre-war levels is built on peace holding. Any incident around the Strait of Hormuz could send crude, Treasury yields, and inflation expectations moving in the wrong direction fast.

The Fed Debate After the Jobs Miss

With hiring cooling and Chair Warsh pointing investors to the data, markets will keep repricing how long "on hold" really lasts.

Earnings Season on Deck

Second-quarter reports begin in earnest mid-July, and guidance about the second half — especially on AI spending and margins — may matter more than the quarter itself.

Scott Martin is available for live television, radio, podcasts, and print interviews on every story featured in this week's Markets in Review, as well as breaking developments affecting investors throughout the week.

Book Scott